Reflecting on the current discussions, last at the Delphi Executive conference in Bonn, and at CeBIT which I both attended as a speaker, I recalled the very lively panel at DLD 09 around online video and social media. If you are interested in the topic, the video gives you insights with Brightcove, Endemol, sevenload and Termor Media and a great moderator, David Kirkpatrick from Fortune Magazine.

Feel free to comment! I also embed the video here:

About the specifics of how we perceive the value of recurring WebTV Content, please check my Interview at ETRE in Stockholm:

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The world is abuzz with the changes spurred by the (third) arrival of video to the internet. There is truth in the perception, but many questions are unanswered by the hype.

The way we see it, three factors will create the actual value of video on the web:

1) ubiquity: it will evolve from a feature to a standard component of every website
2) involvement /interactivity: the business models that will succeed are those that combine the emotional appeal of moving pictures with a wide and differentiated range of interests reflecting long tail segments which in their combination reflect any given markets population diversity
3) cannibalization of existing markets: there is still no new money out there, so startups have to decide who’s pockets they’re after. The Advertising World? Media Budgets? B2C Entertainment? E-Commerce -> Retail? That is the Gretchenfrage.

Incidentally, that’s the exciting part of

http://www.sevenload.de

the board of which I just joined. they will beat YouTube in Europe, not as a copy. Al Ries in “The Origin of Brands”:

“If you want to beat the incumbent, you have to be the enemy of the incumbent”

So be it.

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Last thursday saw a big event in Hamburg: 450 – 500 would-be netphiles converged on SinnerSchrader’s (one of the biggest new media agencies in Germany) to acclaim and discuss the virtues of web 2.0, mashups, social networks, long tail commerce, etc.

http://www.next10years.de/

20 or so nervous VCs were imitating Dilberts Vijay (the World most Desperate VC), but I liked the rather cynical We’ll-Fan-The-Hype-And-Take-The-Money-But-Do-It-Right-This-Time entrepeneurs. My Favorite was Lukas Gadowski, founder of spreadshirt.net, who founded his 120-poeple company with 0$ VC money. that’s right, 0$. Cool guy. He urged “all the consultants and bankers in the room” to “do it again and found a startup, because you’ll get VC money now…” Hilarious, I keep thinking about the old adage of B2C and B2B meaning “back to consulting” and “back to banking” after going bust…. I now it’s really bubble 1.0-ish, but hey, I’m a veteran.

On a more serious note, while valuations are going up, it is true that there are four major differences between then and now:

1) development costs on more mature and open source technologies are a 10% fraction of the cost of 5 years ago
2) (viral, search, performance, affiliate) marketing costs are a factor of 100 cheaper now
3) there are 5-6 times more users with a wide range of needs and much higher affinity to web and mobile (adding up to 13 Mil. in Germany alone)
4) founders, even inexperienced, aren’t half as naive (though some ar getting giddy with the valuation thing).

Cheers!

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